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Forum :  Topic : The Democratic Party is Actually Three Parties

darth_baluga



PostPosted: 28 days ago    Post subject: The Democratic Party is Actually Three Parties

The Democratic Party Is Actually Three Parties

They have different constituents and prefer different policies. Satisfying them all will not be easy.
l
By Thomas B. Edsall

Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from Washington, D.C. on politics, demographics and inequality.

July 24, 2019

Democratic Party voters are split. Its most progressive wing, which is supportive of contentious policies on immigration, health care and other issues, is, in the context of the party’s electorate, disproportionately white. So is the party’s middle group of “somewhat liberal” voters. Its more moderate wing, which is pressing bread-and-butter concerns like jobs, taxes and a less totalizing vision of health care reform, is majority nonwhite, with almost half of its support coming from African-American and Hispanic voters.

This division revealed itself most recently in the CBS battleground tracking surveys of Democratic voters in the first 18 states that will hold primaries. Kabir Khanna, a senior elections manager at CBS, provided detailed findings on these key voters.

CBS broke them into three roughly equal groups.

The first two groups are made up of those who say they are “very liberal” and those who say they are “somewhat liberal.” Both groups are two-thirds white and have substantial — but for the Democratic Party below average — minority representation. They are roughly a quarter African-American and Hispanic.

Those in the third group are Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as moderate to conservative. This group has the largest number of minorities; it is 26 percent black, 19 percent Hispanic, 7 percent other nonwhites, and it has the smallest percentage of whites, at 48 percent.

Overall, the Pew Research Center found in 2016 that Democratic voters were 57 percent white, 21 percent black, and 12 percent Hispanic. The remaining voters were Asian-American and other ethnicities.

A separate Brookings study found that 2018 Democratic primary voters were 54.6 percent white, 24.1 percent black, 9.0 percent Hispanic, with the rest Asian-American, American Indian and others.

At the current stage in the contest, according to Khanna, very liberal Democrats are the most engaged and play a disproportionate role in setting the political agenda.

The three ideological groups favor different sets of policies. On the left, the very liberal voters stress “the environment, protecting immigrants, abortion, and race/gender,” Khanna emailed me, while the moderate to conservative Democrats are “more concerned with job creation and lowering taxes.”

The accompanying chart, which shows what Democrats in the early primary states want candidates to talk about, illustrates these differences.

While 72 percent of very liberal Democrats want candidates to protect immigrants, 42 percent of moderate-to-conservative Democrats share that priority. Sixty-six percent of the very liberal groups want candidates to address “race and gender issues,” compared with 42 percent of the moderates.

Even more interesting is the way these three categories of Democrats split on some of the most contentious issues raised over the first two nights of the Democratic debates: providing health insurance to undocumented immigrants and a Medicare-for-all proposal that would eliminate private health plans.

“The very liberal are more or less evenly split (51-49) on replacing all private health insurance, while the remaining two-thirds of Democrats clearly favor a program that competes with private insurance,” Khanna wrote. Somewhat liberal Democrats were firmly opposed (68-32) to the elimination of private insurance; the moderate and conservative Democrats were slightly more so (70-30).

In addition, Khanna continued, there is a “real differentiation by reported ideology on the question about federal health care for undocumented immigrants.”

In this case, the very liberal group was in favor, 75-25, the somewhat liberal Democrats split, 52-48, and the moderate-conservative group distinctly opposed, 61-39.

What the data demonstrates is that the group containing the largest proportion of minority voters is the most skeptical of some of the most progressive policies embraced by Democratic candidates like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris.

Zach Goldberg, a graduate student in political science at Georgia State, has tracked partisan ideological trends in great detail. In a Tablet essay in June, “America’s White Saviors,” Goldberg wrote,

Over the past decade, the baseline attitudes expressed by white liberals on racial and social justice questions have become radically more liberal.

He cited what he called “one especially telling example”:

White liberals recently became the only demographic group in America to display a pro-outgroup bias — meaning that among all the different groups surveyed white liberals were the only one that expressed a preference for other racial and ethnic communities above their own.

Particularly significant — because it weakens the case that mobilization of minorities requires advocacy of very liberal policies across the board — Goldberg found that

black and Asian Democrats and liberals are significantly more supportive of restrictive immigration policies and less positive toward racial/ethnic diversity than their white counterparts.

Furthermore, Goldberg writes, black and Hispanic Democrats are more likely to part ways with white liberals “when it comes to contemporary social and gender-identity issues, including views of the #MeToo movement.”

Andrew Engelhardt, a political scientist at Brown whose recent work includes “Racial Attitudes through a Partisan Lens” and “Trumped by Race: Explanations for Race’s Influence on Whites’ Votes in 2016,” has documented the increasingly progressive views of white liberals on racial issues between early 2016 and late 2018.

During this period, Engelhardt wrote, “white Democrats’ average levels of racial resentment declined nearly 16 percentage points.” This is by far the biggest attitudinal shift to the left — or the right, for that matter — in the last 30 years, a reaction driven in large part by Trump’s race baiting.

Just as it did in the 2016 campaign, immigration has become an intensely volatile issue in this election cycle.

According to The Washington Post, half of the Democratic presidential candidates support the decriminalization of border crossing, making unauthorized border crossing a civil rather than a criminal offense.

There is an abundance of evidence that the more liberal Democratic presidential candidates may be pushing into dangerous terrain, taking stands that could prove difficult to defend in the general election.

Traditionally, candidates on both sides of the aisle move back to the center once they have secured the nomination. In March 2012, Eric Fehrnstrom, a spokesman for Mitt Romney, was asked if the candidate’s conservative stands in the primaries “would hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?”

Fehrnstrom famously replied:

Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again.

In practice, though, with virtually everything a candidate says now recorded for posterity, it has become increasingly difficult to evade past statements.

The possible costs of the Democratic candidates’ commitment to decriminalization of border crossing are evident in a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll conducted July 15-17. It found that all voters oppose decriminalization by better than two to one, 66-27.

Along similar lines, the liberal, pro-Democratic Center for American Progress issued a report on Monday warning that progressive supporters of liberalized immigration “have ceded powerful rhetorical ground to immigration restrictionists, who are happy to masquerade as the sole defenders of America as a nation of laws.”

There is, according to the center’s report,

a growing sense among some policymakers, as well as among many in the pro-immigrant advocacy community, that the entire enforcement apparatus must be unwound. Certainly, enforcement reforms are necessary, as the following sections of this report explain. But the move to reject enforcement entirely — even in theory — only fuels louder calls for maximum enforcement.

It is not as if Democrats are lacking powerful immigration issues on which to run. An April University of Maryland “Study of American Attitudes on Immigration and Refugees” found that the Trump administration’s family separation policies are opposed 64-25, including by independent swing voters (67-1Cool and even by Republicans whose partisan allegiance is not strong (51-34). Only strong Republicans support the policies, 55-26.

Advocacy for this year’s progressive causes by a number of the Democratic presidential candidates has become a source of anxiety for some well-respected, mainstream Democrats.

Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist, argued that two factors — fund-raising demands and the effect of the social media on candidates and their staff — are turning the nomination contest into “some kind of purity game to see who can be the most leftist.”

In the case of social media, Begala declared:

Democratic Twitter is dominated by overeducated, over-caffeinated, over-opinionated pain-in-the-ass white liberals. Every candidate, and every staffer, checks Twitter and other social media scores of times a day.

The second and more significant factor is what Begala described as the unintended consequences of “the obsession with small donors.” Democrats legitimately “want to break the stranglehold of big money,” Begala wrote, but

when the D.N.C. made accumulating small donors a centerpiece to debate eligibility among two dozen potential candidates, that’s when the unintended consequence kicked in. Small donors are often more motivated, more activist, more engaged, more ideological. In short, more leftist. They’re less likely to send in five bucks to a candidate who says, “I’m going to preserve Obamacare, maintain private insurance, and add a public option so anyone who wants to can join Medicare” — even though that’s where most Americans and most Democrats are.

Begala said he has spoken with numerous state party officials and congressional campaigners who have traced the leftward lurch of the presidential candidates to the small donor problem. The tyranny of the small donor cannot be underestimated.

In a July 17 article in The American Prospect, “Can the Democrats Define Their Own Cause? Or will Trump define it for them?” Paul Starr, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton, warned:

Some of the leading 2020 Democratic presidential candidates didn’t help their cause in the June debates by taking a series of unpopular positions, such as banning private health insurance, providing insurance to the undocumented, and decriminalizing border entry. They’re giving Trump and the Republicans plenty to work with.

In an email, Starr described these developments as “a genuine puzzle.”

Last year’s Democratic governorship and congressional victories, he wrote, “came almost entirely because of gains by center-left candidates. A Gallup poll last December indicated Democrats favored a more moderate rather than a more liberal party.” Turnout in 2018 was exceptionally high and resembled presidential election turnout more than other midterm elections.

Still, there is a counterargument, calling on Democrats to move decisively to the left in order to mobilize progressive voters.

In a May GQ article, “The Democratic Party Is Waging a War Against Its Very Own Base,” Tory Gavito, president of Way to Win, and Sean McElwee, co-founder of Data for Progress, made the case for mobilization of left-leaning voters who cast ballots in 2012 but sat out 2016.

Between 1958 and 2012, the primary electorates of both parties have moved ever further away from the average general election voter, according to two University of California political scientists.

“In the 1950s, the median Democratic primary voter was indistinguishable from the median voter in the public as a whole,” Seth J. Hill and Chris Tausanovitch, of the University of California-San Diego and U.C.L.A., wrote in their July 2018 paper “Southern realignment, party sorting, and the polarization of American primary electorates, 1958–2012.”

Their data extends only through 2012, but the ideological trends for both parties are clear. “Our simulations,” Hill and Tausanovitch wrote, “suggest that polarization of primary electorates in 2012 is about six times greater than in 1958 owing to the sorting of primary voters into party primaries by ideology.” Presciently, they noted that “the changes in Democratic primary electorates evident in 2008 and 2012 may foreshadow further moves to the left by the Democratic Party.”

While the focus here has been on the potential problems of the Democratic nominee in the 2020 general election, there is a possibility that Trump could face parallel difficulties, in effect counterbalancing Democratic vulnerabilities.

Daniel Hopkins, a political scientist at Penn, wrote me that in 2016 voters incorrectly identified Trump’s political agenda. “Many people underestimated the extent to which Donald Trump was perceived as ideologically moderate by 2016 general election voters,” Hopkins wrote.

In October of that year, just before the election, 17 percent of respondents in an Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics panel survey described Trump as “extremely conservative” and 31 percent described him as “conservative,” for a total of 48 percent. In contrast, in 2012, 22 percent said that Mitt Romney was extremely conservative and 45 percent said conservative, for a total of 67 percent.

This leads to an unanswered question: Are all of Trump’s adherents unshakably loyal or can some of them be persuaded to flip, motivated by the reality described on Monday by my colleagues Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman: that while Trump claims to be a pro-worker populist, he has governed as a trickle-down Republican elitist.

In some respects, Trump was flying under a false flag in 2016. Will he pay a price in 2020 when he has to fly under his true colors?



https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/24/opinion/2020-progressive-candidates.html
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Forum :  Topic : Slow Old Joe Crumbles Again!!!!

puzziboi



PostPosted: 2019-07-10 11:10:42     Post subject: Slow Old Joe Crumbles Again!!!!

2019-07-08 10:37:38

First Biden is looking back fondly at getting along with Democrat segregationalists back in the day, even bragging because they didn't call him "boy". When he was told how offensive that was to black people, he refused to apologize. But when those poll numbers started rolling in, and he saw that he was taking a hit in his black support, being the typical politician he is, now he sees the error of his ways and apologizes. I'm telling you, if he gets the nomination, Trump is going to make mince meat of this guy. He folds like a deck of cards when he gets poll results. His convictions are based on his poll numbers..Smile

i have a few thoughts on this:

1) Joe Biden is a relic from years ago when white men never had to apologize because even more so than today anything they did was fine. like he still hasn't acknowledged his part in how anita hill was vilified.

2) How in the world could he have worked in the U.S. Senate in the 1970s without negotiating or conversing with racists or prejudiced lawmakers? many of the most powerful committee chairmen were Southern democrats. let that shit go, Black people. that was the landscape back then.

3) joe is tone deaf. and his campaign staff is filled with yes men. they never should have let him go out there and make that statement in this #MeToo, woke era.secondly, they should HAVE made him apologize immediately before Sen. Booker called him out. then, they let him get lambasted at the debate by Sen. Harris. they knew some candidate would bring that up. they get a "F"

4) joe just needs to sit down and try to salvage what people loved about him. his vice presidency made a lot of people forget his knack gaffes and disconnectedness. and now it's all coming back.
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Forum :  Topic : 

king_naughty



PostPosted: 2019-06-22 10:05:14     Post subject: Mayor Pete attacked by Black Lives Matter mob!

The same groups Democrats helped to create are
eating them alive.

#BlackLivesMatter

#MeToo

Smile
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legendeec



PostPosted: 2019-04-24 18:19:40     Post subject:

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neon-pct



PostPosted: 2019-03-18 03:54:41     Post subject:

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iamthumper



PostPosted: 2019-03-03 15:34:11     Post subject:

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lose-ya-breath



PostPosted: 2019-02-18 19:59:58     Post subject:

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afronerdx



PostPosted: 2019-02-17 19:25:04     Post subject:

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iamthumper



PostPosted: 2019-02-05 04:14:29     Post subject:

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iamthumper



PostPosted: 2019-01-24 23:14:06     Post subject:

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asexualenigma



PostPosted: 2019-01-15 01:01:50     Post subject:

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neon-pct



PostPosted: 2019-01-10 18:06:33     Post subject:

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ichitownboi



PostPosted: 2019-01-06 20:04:51     Post subject:

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cai3030



PostPosted: 2018-12-08 14:25:33     Post subject:

It's kinda funny that the bastard child got more of his dad's athletic talent than the legit Kennedy-Schriver-Schwartzenegger kids did. He didn't get their money and prestige though but I guess he has plenty from Arnold.

That's one maid that said damn the #metoo I need to come up.
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darthchocolate1



PostPosted: 2018-09-28 07:58:28     Post subject: And Speaking of Bill Cosby and the Satanic White Man...

Daddy Pudding Pop is but the latest example of how they manage to put a black face on all of their evildoing. Those evil, twisted privileged white boys have been raping and pillaging forever without any consequences, and who is the first prominent casualty of the #MeToo movement??? Black Ass Bill Cosby!!!

Ole Bill thought he was made for life, because you will never be able to convince me that a nigga is running around the country and drugging and raping white women since the 60's and nobody knew about it. It was an open secret that Cosby was a sicko, but as long as he was making the man rich, and staying in his lane, he was good. When you tell the man you are going to own one of their major networks, you done stepped out of bounds! Now Cos will be having a generic Coke and a smile and shutting the fuck up in the confides of a prison cell, probably until the day he dies...

Before I close this out, I want y'all to think about something, and let it sink in. You got over 40 US Senators, who are knowingly about to put a rapist on the Supreme Court. Let's not pretend that the incidents we know about are the only ones that happened. But at the very least, they know that Dr. Ford is telling the truth. THEY KNOW SHE IS TELLING THE TRUTH! And they are still trying to hustle him on to the Supreme Court of the United States of America, before the really bad shit comes out! These are the white people that everyone seems to think are so prestine and perfect and lawful. And they are good with a likely rapist serving a lifetime on the most powerful Court in the land! If they are good with that, they are good with anything! Isn't that right @bird-fu ????? Smile
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cai3030



PostPosted: 2018-09-15 13:16:25     Post subject:

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darthcocoa



PostPosted: 2018-09-14 12:25:04     Post subject: I Hope Les Moonves Shits Himself To Death!!!!!!

cai3030 wrote:
1536880460 I'm glad he is paying the price for his high white privileged evil. CBS is pushing his ass out of the door and he's not coming back.

I have nothing to say about his wife really. I don't know that she had anything to do with his decisions and their marriage ain't none of my business.
His wife is not responsible for his behavior, but she was certainly a beneficiary of his power and position, and my guess is she didn't just shrug off her obvious advantages. It has been said that she was responsible for Holly Robinson Peete and Leah Remini not getting their contracts renewed for The Talk. I'm sure in the coming days, now that Moonves is out, much tea will be spilled.

I just wonder how is she going to return to The Talk and be like, "I support all the women of the #MeToo movement, except those bitches that are lying on my wonderful husband, the man who gave me this job as your moderator and made sure I got whatever I wanted, which included having you bitches cowtowing to my every whim! Them bitches lying but all the other women are telling the truth!" Her return will be must see TV! Smile
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cai3030



PostPosted: 2018-09-14 11:53:06     Post subject:

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thumppper



PostPosted: 2018-09-02 18:30:11     Post subject: My Bf Asked Me...

discreet_n_solo wrote:
1535922861
thumppper wrote:
1535926467
discreet_n_solo wrote:
1535926941 You thinking like a woman in your rant.
Don’t make me #MeToo
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Forum :  Topic : 

lamarc_bray



PostPosted: 2018-07-02 22:46:36     Post subject: Harvey Weinstein ( His band of molesters ) and Black Women

It's like they are all adults, they weren't children, so I really think the #MeToo movement is total BS.
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sinsational23



PostPosted: 2018-06-10 14:55:32     Post subject:

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muh_to_the_dea



PostPosted: 2018-06-06 15:00:42     Post subject:

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c-dotti



PostPosted: 2018-06-02 11:15:09     Post subject:

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legendeec



PostPosted: 2018-05-29 21:14:14     Post subject:

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darthchocolate1



PostPosted: 2018-05-29 17:14:08     Post subject:

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damnedindustry2



PostPosted: 2018-05-20 17:47:05     Post subject:

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ichitownboi



PostPosted: 2018-05-17 20:46:11     Post subject:

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muh_to_the_dea



PostPosted: 2018-05-02 07:44:21     Post subject:

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darthchocolate1



PostPosted: 2018-03-04 23:15:45     Post subject:

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darthchocolate1



PostPosted: 2018-02-12 12:47:55     Post subject:

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king_naughty



PostPosted: 2018-01-21 08:55:41     Post subject: VIOLA DAVIS MADE HER

I don’t give a shtt about the #MeToo cunts.
Most women practice hypergamy in both social and professional environments.
As evidenced by the 2017’s assault on prominent men, these whores will
trade their sexuality for a comeuppance then use that same transaction to destroy the male participant. A backlash is pending and I will be there on the front lines against these sluts.


MGTOW
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c-dotti



PostPosted: 2018-01-12 23:28:37     Post subject:

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retrn2covnant



PostPosted: 2018-01-12 16:00:36     Post subject: Coonery Reaches The Masai Tribe

retrn2covnant wrote:
1515790966 The Masai of Kenya, Obama's hoes country, like Obama's own father have been done sold out.

White women actually take trips there to sleep with Masai men who prostitute themselves out to the European women for money and gifts.


libralove66 wrote:
1515792207 Aint mad at the white bitches for their admiration of HUGE Black KAWK, but this shit is beyond ridiculous! I saw that video and wanted to throw up!






#MeTooRe-Purposed



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king_naughty



PostPosted: 2018-01-11 19:51:20     Post subject:

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last_wakandan



PostPosted: 2018-01-09 23:13:10     Post subject: Oprah's Golden Globe speech

c-dotti wrote:
1515428646 Ya know, I'm not a fan of Oprah, but I always give people the benefit of the doubt. I know I'll be in the minority and get backlash for this. I just wasn't impressed or moved by her speech at the Golden Globes. Not only that, but I was smh in disbelief. I find it disgusting that Oprah used this platform and took this opportunity to talk about Recy Taylor in relation to what has been going on with the sexual assault of White women in Hollywood. To compare what Recy went through, being raped by 6 White men in the 1940s to what these White folks are doing in Hollywood today. Wow, Oprah. Just wow. Then when she shouted a new day is on the Horizon I was so done. Like I'm not even going to dissect what is wrong with this entire situation from Oprah to her speech to the audience's reactions and the response on social media. I feel like I'm in the fuckin Twilight Zone



Wow. This is one if the most one-sided, ignorant things youve posted. Its more than just white women in Hollywood who have spoken out and the #metoo movement was actually started by a black woman named Tarana Burke. If you truly understood what that movement was about, youd have known better than to post thus and wouldve had a better understanding of what Oprah was trying to convey in her very moving and poignant speech....
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last_wakandan



PostPosted: 2018-01-09 23:05:51     Post subject: Oprah's Golden Globe speech

naughty_nites wrote:
1515428646 I’m a fan of Oprah but I’m not down with this #MeToo bullshtt.
I don’t like the idea of a person having the ability to make an
accusation against another person without proof or an investigation.
These women and even some faggy men are ruining the lives of men
just from an unsubstantiated allegation. These men aren’t afforded any due process in the matter.

I predict all of this victimhood shtt will backfire on democrats and liberals
come the 2018 midterm elections. Men will vote for Trump’s reckless party
just to piss the SOCIAL JUSTICE WARRIOR class off!

MGTOW
A fag that aint seen no pussy since he came out of one is crying MGTOW...lol #iCANT
Code:
Men Going Their Own Way (MGTOW) is a mostly pseudonymous online community supported by websites and social media presences cautioning men against serious romantic relationships with women, especially marriage.


#MeToo has absolutely, positively nothing to do with your punk ass unless you have been sexually harrassed or a victim of sexual misconduct. Its literally about those females & seemingly some males who have been defiled finding their voice and speaking their truths. If youll notice in about 8 out of 10 of these so called big, public unsubstantiated accusations the harrasser is not even vehemently denying the allegations blaming it on being unable to recall the incident. ALSO in most of the cases, investigations were conducted and the evidence points toward the harrassers guilt (X-movies director Bryan Singer)The only one I downright did not believe was the one against Ryan Seacrest. She tried it on everything lol But be clear, #Metoo is not a political movement, its a human/womens rights movement. You should research things more before you speak on them, dummy.....
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king_naughty



PostPosted: 2018-01-08 20:23:13     Post subject:

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king_naughty



PostPosted: 2018-01-08 12:40:57     Post subject:

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king_naughty



PostPosted: 2018-01-07 16:34:46     Post subject: Women in The Entertainment Industry Stunt

Are you referring to the #MeToo movement?
I think it’s a bunch of bullshtt.
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bigdickelmo



PostPosted: 2018-01-01 20:23:31     Post subject: WHO HERE IS INTO ANIME?

naughty_nites wrote:
1514851783 *licks lips*
retrn2covnant wrote:
1514857432


Remember, I don't recommend it, but I've never seen anything like it. Love the character arcs, love the story line, but the gay propaganda in this series is palpable.


The Japanese people are some crazy sons-of-bitches to imagine shit like this.
naughty_nites wrote:
1514858001 Judge all you want..
Male on male rape culture makes my balls hot. Laughing



I remember being in the locker room during high school gym class.
Some of the athletes would horse play by singling out one of their
teammates. They would dry hump his ass and rub their crotches in his face.
None of them were gay of course. They were just asserting their dominance
through sexual humiliation or whatever rituals straight men feel necessary.
I would watch from afar but I’d go home and fantasize. Those images got
me threw high school. I was a virgin until college.
Chloe, do you have a #MeToo story?
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